I greatly dislike the phrases "You were warned" and "You were told," because they are uttered when it is already too late to change anything. And one would very much not wish to believe that they are applicable to Abkhazia right now. Yet much points to the fact that time is running out. And everything that Accent has written about repeatedly of late — which various trolls and some of our Abkhazian colleagues each time tried to dismiss as "fake news" — is beginning to be confirmed step by step. Not only verbally, but already in documentary form.

I am speaking of Russia's long-standing plan to annex Abkhazia — the first legislative foundation for whose implementation was laid back in 2014 by the so-called major bilateral agreement, and the concrete signs of whose realization have begun to manifest visibly and forcefully in recent months.

At first, various hints were sounded from Moscow. Then various political figures such as Prilepin, Prokhanov, and others began to state this openly, but in the guise of personal initiatives. And later it was the turn of official figures.

The recent statements of Russian official Konstantin Zatulin — "honorary citizen of Abkhazia" and State Duma deputy — triggered yet another wave of outrage in Abkhazian society. And Zatulin decided not to leave the Abkhazians' reaction unanswered, subsequently giving an interview to the host of the program "Caucasian Character." But instead of any hint of regret for what he had said earlier, or any attempt to demonstrate that he had been "misunderstood," he pointed even more explicitly to the grim prospects facing Abkhazia — declaring that it had failed as a state, and that if Abkhazia adopted the laws proposed by Russia, "the country has a future," but if not, "Abkhazia's fate will be a difficult one."

And all of these information signals — escalating from Prilepin to official figures — are occurring against the backdrop of Russia's financial and medical blockade of Abkhazia, which finds itself in an extremely difficult situation during the pandemic.

All of this, taken together, fits perfectly into the general concept of constructing the image of Abkhazia as a "state without prospects" that "cannot succeed without joining Russia." Prilepin and Prokhanov, as "unofficial" figures, were simply more honest — stating Moscow's objective in plain terms. Zatulin, as a representative of the authorities, attempted to present the same thing in the guise of someone "caring for Abkhazia with all his heart," declaring that "if Georgia were to recognize Abkhazia's sovereignty, that would be a day of celebration" — while immediately adding that "unfortunately, this will not happen."

Into this same general concept fits yet another element: Mr. Zatulin — who periodically positions himself in the same guise of "caring with all his heart," only this time for the Georgian people — did not forget to pour dirt on Tbilisi in the crudest possible terms. Cooperation with Tbilisi is something being discussed in Sukhumi with increasing frequency and energy. The purpose here is also clear: so that Abkhazians know with whom they ought to think about cooperating, and with whom they ought not. And indeed, whether they may think about their own future at all — or whether Russia, which apparently decided everything long ago, will decide it for them.

The "fraternal" Kremlin has continued to remain silent throughout all of this — just as it did following the offensive ideas of Prilepin, Prokhanov, and others. And each time various Russian figures allow themselves such liberties, it falls to the Abkhazian authorities themselves to reassure the people that these were expressions of exclusively private views. Yet the Kremlin also remained silent after the recent protest statement by the Abkhazian "Foreign Ministry" affirming that the decision on Abkhazia's "independence" is not subject to revision — from Moscow came neither confirmation of this idea nor the slightest reproach directed at the "private Russian initiatives." Does this fact not give rise to troubling thoughts?

And if only it were merely the Kremlin's silence. But against this backdrop, official documents have begun to enter the public domain — confirming what Accent has been writing about of late, based on information from its own sources: during his last visit to Moscow, "President" Bzhania was openly presented with a series of demands, obligatory for implementation within strictly specified deadlines. And in the event of refusal, his government was threatened with "domestic political upheavals" — apparently the very ones that Mr. Zatulin later referenced in his interview.

These "proposals" from the Russian Foreign Ministry — in the form of "a package of documents for the draft program for the formation of a common social and economic space on the basis of the harmonization of the legislation of Abkhazia and Russia" — have, as it transpired, already been placed before the deputies of the Abkhazian "parliament." And it will of course be Abkhazia that does the "harmonizing." It turns out that Abkhazian laws must "urgently" incorporate provisions that Abkhazians have resisted for many years — for instance, the right of foreigners to privatize real estate in Abkhazia (including, as Zatulin mentioned, sanatoria, hotels, and the New Athos Monastery, which, according to him, Russia built and which therefore rightfully belong to it), as well as provisions on the energy sector, foreign agents, and much else.

Another document that appeared at roughly the same time on social media and in Abkhazian Telegram channels suggests that the Kremlin had been placing these "proposals" before Abkhazia's "authorities" even before Aslan Bzhania's last visit to Moscow. It also sheds light on what Sukhumi's position on the matter was at that point. The document in question is a letter signed by "Prime Minister" Alexander Ankvab on July 23, 2020, addressed to Alexei Filatov, head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation's Department for Cross-Border Cooperation.

The document states that the Abkhazian side has reviewed the draft "Joint Plan for the Harmonization of the Legislation of the Republic of Abkhazia and the Russian Federation with a View to Developing a Common Social and Economic Space." Ankvab writes that "certain measures of this plan require additional coordination" — specifically those concerning: the attraction of foreign investment in the modernization of Abkhazia's electricity system; the development of legislation on the civil circulation of real estate; and the alignment of Abkhazian legislation with that of the Russian Federation regarding the activities of non-commercial organizations and foreign agents. Sukhumi at the time proposed that the Russian side adjust the deadlines for implementing certain measures of the plan.

It was after this that Aslan Bzhania made his last visit to Moscow — followed by Zatulin's interview with all its "delights."

And here it is necessary to rewind the clock by several months once more. The "harmonization" project we are speaking of was delivered to Abkhazia at the end of last year — and a month later, the "government" changed. It is apparently precisely this to which Mr. Zatulin was "amicably" hinting when he explained why the time for "changes" had arrived right now — referring in this context to the new "president" Aslan Bzhania as "no fool" who "understands that the problems that have been holding back Abkhazia's development must be resolved." And if one adds to this his phrase that otherwise "Abkhazia's fate as a state will be difficult — domestic political upheavals will keep recurring" — one arrives at precisely the direct threat that Accent wrote about recently in its article on Bzhania's last visit to Moscow.

Whether Sukhumi will be able to hold firm this time will be revealed in the very near future. For now, only one thing can be said with certainty: even with all kinds of resources in short supply, one must not give up when it comes to resisting Russia's plans. A way out almost always exists. And now is precisely the time to find it.

Gvantsa Pipia

The material was prepared as part of a joint project of the Accent news agency and the non-governmental organization GRASS, implemented with the financial support of the Embassy of the Czech Republic in Georgia.