Against the backdrop of the effective economic collapse triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, Abkhazia had been eagerly awaiting the return from Moscow of its newly elected de facto president, Aslan Bzhania, who had taken office just a couple of months earlier. However, as became clear at his very first press conference in Sukhumi, Mr. Bzhania returned with virtually nothing concrete to offer on the issues of greatest concern to the population — Russian financial assistance and the opening of the de facto border with Russia to salvage the tourist season.

On what is currently the most pressing question for many Abkhazian families — "when will the border open, and were any agreements on this reached in Moscow?" — Bzhania stated that "Abkhazia cannot and sees no point in opening the border unilaterally," and that everything would depend on the epidemiological situation in Russia:

"We can open the border at any time, but doing so unilaterally makes no sense — the same step must be taken by our Russian friends. We will wait a certain number of days. If my memory serves me correctly, a large influx of tourists began heading to Sochi around June 24th or 25th. The incubation period is two weeks, so the picture should become clearer by July 10th. We will act based on what that picture shows."

As for Russian financial assistance — which had been steadily shrinking and had virtually dried up — Bzhania attempted to refute this widely circulated information, claiming that Russia had "conscientiously and effectively" fulfilled all obligations under the relevant bilateral agreements, and that the problem arose because Abkhazia's own de facto leadership had "overlooked something" while preoccupied with the recent de facto elections. He promised that Sukhumi would now seek to make up for lost ground, though he gave no specifics on how or by what means.

In this context, his candidly negative response to the question of whether the government planned any support measures for the population and businesses struggling under the pandemic came as no surprise to anyone:

"No, the state cannot afford such measures, because there is no financial cushion — the budget is half composed of Russian financial assistance, and we have no resources of our own. On top of that, the coronavirus epidemic has blown a hole in the budget of nearly two billion rubles. But we hope Russia will help. It has never abandoned us in difficult times, and I am confident it will not do so now," said Aslan Bzhania.

The logical follow-up question — whether the de facto leadership of Abkhazia planned to take any steps to develop its own economy so as to avoid dependence on external assistance in the future — went essentially unanswered, as Bzhania pivoted to discussing "corruption as an obstacle to economic growth."

In short, the de facto president had little of comfort to offer — neither to the general population, whom he only promised "not to let starve," nor to Abkhazian businesses, whose dire predicament Accent had recently reported on. Entrepreneurs whose sales volumes have collapsed to a critical 7.4% say it is becoming impossible to continue operating in Abkhazia. Yet they cannot simply close up shop and go home — responsibility toward hundreds of employees, and loans taken out for business development or expansion, hang over them like the Sword of Damocles, threatening not only themselves but their guarantors and their homes. Any hope of accessing the market of Russia, Abkhazia's strategic partner, has now had to be abandoned. In the current situation, business representatives believe "the option of opening the border with Georgia is worth considering — a route through which Abkhazian goods could reach not only Georgian but foreign markets." Some are even prepared to explore this path regardless of whether Russia opens its own de facto border.

"Since opening the border with Russia never gave us many business development opportunities anyway, I believe we have a unique chance to establish trade relations with Georgia — even if not yet at an official level," says entrepreneur P.K.

"Such views are not new in Abkhazian society. Talk of this kind of cooperation arises with increasing frequency during crises and periods of difficulty. Now, during a pandemic that has inflicted devastating damage on the entire Abkhazian economy, this cooperation may become not merely a support, but a solid foundation for recovery. It could also serve as an alternative to Russian financial assistance, which diminishes year by year and could one day dry up entirely," writes Abkhazian journalist Mira Amichba.

The basis for this initiative among certain Abkhazian entrepreneurs is the peace initiative package for Abkhazia and so-called South Ossetia entitled "A Step to a Better Future" (available in full on the Georgian government's official website), proposed by the Georgian leadership in early April 2018. It envisages, among other things, the expansion and simplification of trade along the de facto borders through new mechanisms — including the crossing of dividing lines, support for individual and joint business initiatives, and the export of Abkhazian and South Ossetian goods to the EU market. Tbilisi even introduced corresponding amendments to eight laws, including the Law on Occupied Territories. The initiative was subsequently fully endorsed by the European Union, which pledged comprehensive support for its implementation. Sukhumi refused at the time, and Kremlin-aligned outlets gleefully reported that "Abkhazia had ridiculed the Georgian program."

Accent sought to determine whether the peace initiative package remained in force despite Sukhumi's earlier refusal and the coronavirus pandemic, and whether it had undergone any changes. It emerged that everything remains in effect, on the same terms as before.

"We welcome the interest shown by Abkhazian entrepreneurs in establishing trade relations. The 'A Step to a Better Future' initiative — oriented toward the well-being of the population, peace, development, and the resolution of existing problems — is apolitical and represents the only viable path toward rebuilding trust, bringing peoples closer together, and, most importantly at this stage, improving the lives of people on both sides of the dividing lines. Against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic, it has become even more important to take advantage of the benefits this initiative provides. Establishing trade relations is the best way to support the population living in Abkhazia. We have already activated one mechanism, which has proven successful — many local entrepreneurs have expressed interest in joining projects and obtaining grants to start or develop their businesses. In the near future, a second financial mechanism is planned — the 'Peace Fund for a Better Future' — aimed at improving the socio-economic conditions of the population. The Georgian government is always open to constructive, goal-oriented cooperation in addressing humanitarian challenges. We have on many occasions expressed our readiness to expand relations with Abkhazian society, including through status-neutral peace initiatives. We remain committed to a policy of peace, continue making concrete efforts toward trust-building and reconciliation, and will continue to take pragmatic steps in pursuit of these peaceful goals," stated the office of the Georgian State Minister for Reconciliation and Civic Equality.

It is also worth mentioning the recent International Crisis Group report, "COVID-19's Challenge in Breakaway Regions of the Former Soviet Union." It noted that Abkhazia, unlike "South Ossetia," was able to set aside political considerations and promptly establish active cooperation with international organizations to protect its population from the spread of coronavirus — making it a highly successful example across the entire post-Soviet space.

"The local leadership was able to organize cooperation with everyone it could, regardless of where those organizations were based — in Tbilisi or abroad — where they came from or in what capacity. [...] This was done first and foremost to help the population [...] Had Sukhumi begun to resist and impose conditions, the medical workers now on the front lines would likely have faced serious problems. They would have lacked basic protective equipment, and had they become infected, Abkhazia would effectively have been left without doctors within two weeks... In terms of building cooperation with international organizations, with Tbilisi, with Moscow — Abkhazia is an example for everyone else," said Olesya Vartanyan, analyst at the International Crisis Group.

Among the report's recommendations to the parties is a call to cooperate in the trade sphere as well, seizing the unique opportunity presented by this moment:

"Abkhazia has a very serious financial problem — the region spent all of last year in political turmoil, with three rounds of voting, and the treasury in Sukhumi is now empty. When Abkhazia began its fight against coronavirus, it became clear that the current year would bring serious difficulties for the tourism business. Meanwhile, the Georgian government faces certain constraints on economic activity and on contacts between international financial institutions and the de facto leadership. There have been attempts to discuss this and find a solution acceptable to all, but this now deserves greater attention. We are also raising the idea of developing trade cooperation between Abkhazia and Georgian regions. This is a very good moment to begin that conversation — and it could perhaps somehow compensate for the economic losses suffered by people living in this region."

Georgi Turazashvili

The text contains place names and terminology used in the self-proclaimed Republic of Abkhazia. Opinions expressed in the publication reflect the views of the author and do not necessarily represent the position of the editorial board.